Housing market cooldown continued in November, however few indicators of widespread promoting associated to renewal shock


The slowdown in housing exercise throughout the nation continued in November, however to this point there aren’t indicators of widespread distressed promoting, figures present.

Gross sales from the nation’s largest metro housing markets continued to ease within the month, with most markets now—or close to—consumers’ market territory.

Calgary, nevertheless, stays a notable exception, with gross sales and costs up roughly 10% from year-ago ranges.

“There’s little question excessive rates of interest, affordability points and rising financial uncertainty are holding again potential consumers in an enormous manner,” famous RBC’s Robert Hogue.

Paul Baron, President of the Toronto Regional Actual Property Board (TRREB), stated inflation and elevated borrowing prices have “taken their toll on affordability.”

Nevertheless, he stated aid seems to be on the horizon, with bond yields—which lead fastened mortgage charges—down sharply from their peaks and expectations rising that the Financial institution of Canada will begin reducing charges within the first half of 2024.

“Decrease charges will assist alleviate affordability points for present householders and people trying to enter the market,” he stated.

No “regarding” rise in housing stock

Regardless of excessive rates of interest and considerations about rising delinquencies as billions of {dollars} price of mortgages come up for renewal over the approaching years, new listings in most areas stay little modified in comparison with October.

“Usually, we’ve got but to see any regarding rise in provide which may be related to the mortgage renewal shock,” Hogue stated, including that new listings truly fell month-over-month in a number of markets, together with Toronto and Vancouver.

That follows a 2.3% decline in new listings nationally in October, the primary such decline in seven months. This has led to a rise in stock, which rose to 4.1 months’ price in October from 3.7 in September.

“We anticipate consumers will keep on the defensive in lots of elements of Canada into the early a part of subsequent 12 months,” he added. “We see them leveraging their stronger bargaining place to drive costs additional down till curiosity cuts deliver in additional competitors.”

Right here’s a take a look at the November statistics from a few of the nation’s largest regional actual property boards:

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Higher Toronto Space

November 2023 YoY % Change
Gross sales 4,236 -6%
Benchmark worth (all housing varieties) $1,082,179 +0.3%
New listings 10,545 +16.5%
Energetic listings 16,759 +40.7%

“Dwelling costs have adjusted from their peak in response to increased borrowing prices,” stated TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This has offered some aid for consumers, from an affordability perspective,” he added. “As mortgage charges pattern decrease subsequent 12 months and the inhabitants continues to develop at a report tempo, anticipate demand to extend relative to produce. This can ultimately result in renewed progress in dwelling costs.”

Supply: Toronto Regional Actual Property Board (TRREB)


Higher Vancouver Space

Vancouver housing market
November 2023 YoY % Change
Gross sales 1,702 +4.7%
Benchmark worth (all housing varieties) $1,185,100 +4.9%
New listings 3,369 +9.8%
Energetic listings 10,931 +13.5%

“We’ve been watching the variety of lively listings in our market enhance over the previous few months, which is giving consumers extra to select from than they’ve been used to seeing over the previous few years,” stated Andrew Lis, REBGV Director of Economics and Information Analytics.

“When paired with the seasonal slowdown in gross sales we usually see this time of 12 months, this enhance in provide is creating balanced situations throughout Metro Vancouver’s housing market,” he added.

Supply: Actual Property Board of Higher Vancouver (REBGV)


Montreal Census Metropolitan Space

Montreal housing market
November 2023 YoY % Change
Gross sales 2,664 -1%
Median Worth (single-family indifferent) $539,700 +4%
Median Worth (apartment) $395,275 +4%
New listings 4,787 +3%
Energetic listings 17,715 +11%

“Not like different massive Canadian metropolitan areas corresponding to Toronto and Vancouver, the residential market within the Montreal area isn’t experiencing a speedy enhance within the variety of properties returning to the market,” stated Charles Brant, Director of the QPAREB’s Market Evaluation Division.

“For the second, the slowdown within the financial system and the rise in borrowing prices appear to have much less affect on the monetary well being of households within the Quebec metropolis,” he added.

Supply: Quebec Skilled Affiliation of Actual Property Brokers (QPAREB)

Calgary

Calgary housing market
November 2023 YoY % Change
Gross sales 1,787 +8.8%
Benchmark worth (all housing varieties) $572,700 +10.7%
New listings 2,227 +38.2%
Energetic listings 2,989 -4%

“Like different massive cities, new listings have been growing,” stated CREB Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Nevertheless, in Calgary, the positive factors haven’t been sufficient to vary the low stock state of affairs due to sturdy demand. Our market continues to favour the vendor, driving additional worth progress.”

Supply: Calgary Actual Property Board (CREB)


Ottawa

Ottawa housing market statistics
November 2023 YoY % Change
Gross sales 724 -1.6%
Common Worth (residential property) $708,900 +1.6%
Common Worth (condominium) $424,300 +1.2
New listings 1,428 +2.7%
Energetic listings 2,752 +15.8%

“Gross sales are performing as anticipated with the arrival of colder months, and an uptick in new and lively listings is bringing extra alternative again into the market,” stated OREB President Ken Dekker.

“Whereas extra alternative could imply the tempo of shopping for and promoting has slowed, that doesn’t imply individuals trying to enter or improve available in the market ought to sit again,” he added.

Supply: Ottawa Actual Property Board (OREB)